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GLG News by this Author

MetroPCS Leaps Over Cricket

September 4, 2007

Analysis of:MetroPCS Offers $5.12B for Leap | biz.yahoo.com

Not a surprising move, given that market was anitcipating it. Process of consolidation continues in the wireless carrier market. Transaction may benefit Alcatel-Lucent & Tekelec, and negatively impact Nortel and VeriSign. The process of consolidation continues in the mobile wireless market! Could Sprint be next?

Saving Grace of WiMAX

August 27, 2007

Analysis of:The Road To WiMAX | www.businessweek.com

There is significant difference between WiFi and WiMAX from a deployment perspective and business models that could potentially prove to be the achilles heel of WiMAX. The business case for the carriers should be for services other than voice and pure internet access. So far, except Sprint Nextel, no other major mobile carriers have made significant commitment to WiMAX and this technology could very well remain a niche.

Window of Opportunity Closing for the US Telecom Equipment Vendors

August 22, 2007

Analysis of:Operators Tap Into African Growth | www.lightreading.com

After China and India, the next growth market for mobile application is the Middle East and Africa. The rise in price of oil has made some of the economies in the region very wealthy and the governments and private industry are making significant investment in the infrastructure. Chinese government has made a proactive stand in helping these economies by assisting in building the infrastructure, including telecom. US equipment vendors are not seriously considered, given the political environment.

This Relationship is All About Rural Market

August 21, 2007

Analysis of:Nortel Resells Genband Gateways | www.lightreading.com

Genband acquired switching assets of Siemens/Siemens Stromberg Carlson, including the intellectual properties associated with connecting to the proprietary interface of the line bays of these manufacturing-discontinued switches. Nortel is planning to upgrade the core of these switches with CS1500 (next gen DMS-10 platform). This is actually very positive for Nortel since they now can address about 1,100 rural switches that can be converted to CS1500.

Next Gen Mobile Carriers May Change the Game

August 20, 2007

Analysis of:Mobile Advertising Reaches for the Sky | www.wirelessweek.com

Nontraditional mobile operators may emerge when the 700 MHz spectrum is finally auctioned off in the coming year that could potentially change the landscape and business model of existing mobile carriers, like AT&T and Verizon Wireless. The communication service may be completely free of charge or heavily subsidized by advertising.

Mobility is Critical, but at what cost and how different?

July 23, 2007

Analysis of:Cable’s wireless adventure | www.telecommagazine.com

Mobility is the single most important attribute of voice service and without mobility, voice carriers' long term viability will depend on offering mobility and roaming, cost effectively. WiMAX deployment cost of building the radio networks (for coverage and capacity) and cost of handsets will determine the profitability for Sprint, Clearwire, or other WiMAX carriers. So long as WiMAX remains a niche technology, the economies of scale will not kick in to reduce the cost side. The main question remains as how Sprint/Clearwire will do differently to attract customers in this crowded space.

Traffic over IMS is just a Myth Today!

July 16, 2007

Analysis of:VeriSign: Pacific Crest Sees Possible Sale Of Telecom Business, Other Units | blogs.barrons.com

1. Traffic and service over IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) have not yet seriously picked up significantly to impact SS7 traffic significantly. 2. SS7 traffic continues to grow dramatically in wireless, mostly driven by new IN/CAMEL-based services and SMS 3. Consolidation of fixed line and mobile carriers along with migration to SIGTRAN are the primary reason for the reduction in SS7 traffic and revenue.

Femtocell & Its Relationship with Wireless Data Service

July 3, 2007

Analysis of:TELECOM REPORT: Seeding The Future Of Communications | www.marketwatch.com

1. Wireless Service Providers are assessing the deployment of a new form factor for radio, that is low power and gets packaged as a residential gateway (like DSL or cable modem), called Femtocell, to extend the reach of their broadband radio indoor, to improve their coverage, and to use an existing broadband infrastructure to carry the traffic back to their network (using a fixed line carrier's broadband access assets) 2. Primary application is for broadband wireless data service in building so that the user does not have to switch to WiFi or connect via an Ethernet cable and maintain its connectivity inside and outside using the same radio modem connected to the laptop. 3. Mobile data goes through a wireless router, called PDSN in CDMA and SGSN/GGSN in GSM/UMTS. Growth of wireless data traffic and penetration of Femtocell will increase the demand for wireless routers.

Process of Consolidation

June 26, 2007

Analysis of:VeriSign: Pacific Crest Sees Possible Sale Of Telecom Business, Other Units | blogs.barrons.com

1. Too many SS7 carriers are trying to vie for a small market and consolidation is a natural outcome among the carriers in this space. 2. With consolidation of tier II mobile carriers, there are fewer opportunities in SS7 wholesale business that VeriSign, Syniverse and TNS (or known as Hub Providers) are chasing. 3. A hub provider will probably be a natural acquirer.

Not a True FMC Play

June 22, 2007

Analysis of:Verizon products merge wireless, wireline services | www.rcrnews.com

1. Verizon's announced Single Number Service is not necessarily a very unique service. 2. Other carriers have similar offerings. 3. The main issue is how Verizon is going to display the caller ID for an outbound call when a call is originated from a mobile hand set.

Wireless Data for High End Users

June 15, 2007

Analysis of:AT&T Rolls Out GoPhone Pay As You Go Feature Packages | www.att.com

1. Prepaid service has been a success primarily in low end market or teen services for voice services and text message service 2. Mobile data so far has been adopted by the high end users. 3. Prepaid data will be a challenge for the mobile carriers

China 3G Proprietary Radio Technology

May 29, 2007

Analysis of:Alcatel-Lucent Has Losing Quarter but Sees Better Days Ahead | www.nytimes.com

China's 3G Radio Market is dominated by their locally developed technology, based on their own standards (TDS-CDMA) ALU will benefit primarily from sale of core networking equipment and not as much radios.

Consolidation will not happen as fast as they had anticipated

May 23, 2007

Analysis of:Alcatel-Lucent Has Losing Quarter but Sees Better Days Ahead | www.nytimes.com

1. Political barriers within the two organizations will not allow them to gain the benefit of the merger for some time to come. 2. Product reconciliation will not happen as fast as projected

Insignificant Victory

May 14, 2007

Analysis of:SONUS NETWORKS CHOSEN BY FRANCE TELECOM INTERNATIONAL WHOLESALE SOLUTIONS | www.telephonyworld.com

International VoIP Wholesale is a very small project in scope. Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent are too dominant in the core of the network to allow substantial penetration for Sonus.

Partnership is key for Navini

May 9, 2007

Analysis of:Navini Networks, The Pioneer of Personal Broadband | www.tmcnet.com

WiMAX is going to be a technology that would require volume to keep the vendor competitive.

A company the size of Navini will require a strong partner in order to scale and increase volume dramatically in order to benefit from the economies of scale.

Challenges for Profitability

May 3, 2007

Analysis of:Complement or Competition? | www.telecommagazine.com

1.  The cost of deployment will be substantial and the business case will not be that attractive, compared with existing deployed broadband infrastructure, especially compared to the deployed cable plants.

2. Mobility is not planned anytime soon, hence, no compelling value compared with the broadband players.

3. Synergy with the existing assets (CDMA and iDEN) is low.

Challenges of Femtocell yet to be resolved

April 22, 2007

Analysis of:Samsung introduces CDMA base station for home coverage | www.mobiletechnews.com

- Riding on a broadband pipe for carriage of mobile traffic is attractive for mobile carriers to deploy Femtocell
- Business models are not fully defined
- Aggregation is key to simplify the macro network
- Hand off in & out of Femtocell still a challenge

Single Number is the Key

March 28, 2007

Analysis of:EarthLink targets cellphones with Wi-Fi phone initiative | www.rcrnews.com

For a successful dual mode service, the following items are critical for their success:

1. Single Number Service

2. Service Transparency across Mobile & WiFi Networks

3. Seamless handover across media types (VoIP & Cellular)

Nortel Losing Grounds in 4G

February 20, 2007

Analysis of:Nortel CEO: 3G Can't Cut It | www.lightreading.com

Nortel is losing ground in 4G already, having lost the Sprint Nextel 3rd vendor opportunity to Nokia. 4G is all about handsets and that is where Samsung, Nokia and Motorola have a huge advantage. From one perspective, Mike Z of Nortel is correct that 3G won't cut it for bandwidth, but 4G won't really happen in large scale with significant footprint till 2010 or beyond!

One component of 4G core is also an IMS (even though I personally do not believe too much in it yet!) and Nortel has struggled to get their IMS core working as well, losing the battle to Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent.

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