
President, Forest Strategies, LLC.
Member of the Natural Resources Council
Brad Franchi is the President of Forest Strategies, a Forest and Paper consulting service. Mr. Franchi has provided over 85 consultations while earning the top four percent of all consultants. He is also a Partner at Timber Barons LLCs that buy and sell timberlands, in SC and OH. Mr. Franchi has over 23 years of experience in managing forestry and paper operations. As a key member of the Forestry and Paper integration teams, including two large industrial mergers, he has Sarbanes Oxley experience. Mr. Franchi has expertise in managing forestry data analysis, valuation, purchasing and divestiture operations for large and small tracts of timberlands, focused on China, and the Americas. He has worked with Wall St and provided consultations on REITs, valuation of timberlands, general forestry and pulp and paper manufacture. Mr. Franchi has concentrated in the citing of Biomass plant studies, and lately, serving multiple client requests for timberland and timber valuations. (This is me - Update Profile)
Opinions and analyses expressed in GLG News are solely those of the author. See the Terms of Use for details.
NOAA has reduced hurricane forecast due to a more robust EL NIno episode
September 9, 2009
NOAA cuts hurricane forecast, cites El Nino | www.reuters.com
Out of the fry pan and into the fire? NOAA reduces hurricane forecast - El Nino windshear helps keep hurricanes at bay, upper level winds associated with El Nino disrupt internal events with the hurricane NOAA significantly reduced hurricane predictions recently - as the El Nino cycle strengthens stating "El Nino is here already"
Barrons Timber Analysis article might oversimplify the situation?
August 12, 2009
Timber companies vulnerable to price drop-Barron's | www.reuters.com
Barron's timber article states that US timber may be overvalued by up to 50%. Barron's points out, correctly that even last year in the midst of 30%+ declines in stock values, timberland values actually rose 7%. If we return to the basic fundamentals of timberland ownership, a point by point summary would includeUS Timberlands yields 4-8% per year in biological growth.US recreational leases for these properties have risen steadily to $15-$25 /acLumber and other products have lost value?
Review of some recent El Nino events - Consequences can linger !
July 21, 2009
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO), DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION | www.cpc.noaa.gov
Terms and definitions El Nino - Refers to a weather event that usually last a year or more. El Nino is driven by warm waters in the tropical pacific. Most recent El Nino's have beaten a path across the US West and dumped up to 25% or more additional rainfall across the SE USA, during the wettest time of the year. La Nina - is driven by a cool water event. Recent La Ninas have not been near as severe as the El Ninos. Generally not a concern for Forest Products
El Nino - 2009 - 2010 - promises to effect timber and paper production
July 12, 2009
NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - El Ni�o Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 | www.noaanews.noaa.gov
NOOA is predicting El Nino conditions to effect World and US weather. In the Southern US El Nino conditions have occurred about every 5 years. This phenomena is caused by warming seas in Asia, which then sets up a "Freight Train" of wetter than normal conditions over the SE USA. After a period of time, logging, especially hardwoods, can be come difficult or impossible to conduct. In at least one recent El Nino period, several Southen pulp and sawmills have been forced to take down time, due to a lack of hardwood fiber in the local wood baskets. Other mills have resorted to procuring higher cost chips or pulpwood, generally logged from other regions where the El Nino is not as intense. El Nino can have some positive effects, also. The increased wind shear can help mitigate hurricane development.
Once again, the forest products industry shows a high degree of correlation
June 4, 2009
Sharply declining wood costs for pulpmills worldwide in the 1Q 2009, according to Wood Resource Quarterly | www.openpr.com
Once again the forest products industry finds new ways to minimize cost. Traditionally when one end of the market experiences declining demand, another part of the industry utilizes that fiber. Times are different now, as the entire industry is experiencing poor demand. This is forcing some private landowners to not harvest timber, but retain the trees on the stump to capture the biological growth of 2 to 6% per year, as well as time. Although demand is weak, the biomass Mills are using this decline in demand to move up from strictly low-end fuel chips, into the pulpwood markets, and take advantage of decreased paper demand. Recent predictions are for paper to start to recover in 2010. At that point there may increased competition between paper Mills and biomass Mills over both fuel wood pulpwood. Another sign of increased activity, will be the reloading of the pulpwood and saw timber markets from very low inventories. It can take a years to reload the pulpwood or saw timber markets
| Study Group Name | No. Members |
|---|---|
| Commercial Printing Experts | 1350 |
| Commercial Printing Market Experts | 330 |
| Timber and Forest Industry Consultants | 293 |
| Timber Experts | 144 |
| Council Members Knowledgeable on Paper Newsprint | 114 |
Brad Franchi has not participated in any GLG Live Meetings.