All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Government, Legislation & Politics

The EU's quiet new leadership

November 21, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Low-Profile Leaders Chosen for Top European Posts | www.nytimes.com

The new President of the European Council, Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy, and high representative for foreign and security policy, Catherine Ashton, are both low profile personalities in new high profile positions. Both also have limited EU and international experience. Van Rompuy's strength is his ability to build consensus.  Baroness Ashton, EU Trade Commissioner for the past year, may have the highest profile position of the two.

Duncan MacDonaldConsultantDuncan McDonald

What GAO card study means to interchange legislation & NY lawsuit.

November 20, 2009

Analysis of:GAO: Let Card-Fee System Stand | online.wsj.com

The GAO study of bankcard interchange fees is a mixed bag for the industry. It upholds the practice (in contradiction to the lawsuit against the practice in New York) but points to numerous ideas about how its excesses can be reduced. The latter could propel the Welsh bill in Congress toward enactment. It would allow merchant actions to pressure issuers to accept lower interchange fees. The study's ideas could also play a role in crafting a settlement of the NY suit.

Daniel LintzPresident & Chief Executive OfficerSafe Harbour Japan K.K.

ISDA Determination on JAL Rehabilitation Not Welcome

November 19, 2009

Analysis of:Will JAL Be Required to Settle JPY100 Billion in Derivatives Contracts? | headlines.yahoo.co.jp

The Yomiuri Shinbun reports that the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) may require Japan Airlines Corporation to settle JPY 100 billion in swaps and derivatives as a result of filing for creditor protection under ADR provisions of the Special Measure for Industrial Revitalization, raising the specter of potential retaliation by Japanese financial regulators.

Duncan MacDonaldConsultantDuncan McDonald

Populist Politics Threaten Card Industry Recovery & Survival

November 19, 2009

Analysis of:US Credit Card Sector Faces Punitive Hostility | www.ft.com

The letter in today's FT (I am one of the authors) questions whether new and proposed legislation by Congress can kill the credit card industry.

More Form Than Substance

November 15, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:EU launches excessive debt action against nine nations | www.livemint.com

The nine new Member States cited for excessive deficits bring the total to 20, three quarters of the entire EU membership.  The EU Treaty requires the Commission to make these pronouncements, but this is only the start of a long process.  Also, with the final decision on action, if any, up to the Member States, it is hard to believe a majority will be found to vote against themselves.

The Resources are There, but the Security is Not

November 12, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Iraq oil deal puts pressure on Opec | www.ft.com

The award does not change that much. It allows for exploration and development - on paper. But the political insecurity that has kept Iraqi oil production down remains, and the West Qurna field is still vulnerable, and may become more so.

EU, US and Mexico pursue WTO case against China's export limits on minerals

November 11, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:EU requests WTO panel on Chinese export restrictions on raw materials | trade.ec.europa.eu

The EU, US and Mexico have brought complaints to the WTO regarding China's export restrictions and/or export taxes on bauxite, coke, fluorspar, magnesium, manganese, silicon carbide, silicon metal, yellow phosphorus and zinc. The three argue that these measures unfairly aid Chinese producers of downstream products that use these inputs.  A WTO dispute settlement panel will hear the case and issue a decision. If China is found in violation, it will have to comply or face trade retaliation.  

Duncan MacDonaldConsultantDuncan McDonald

Retail discounts won't revive our economy

November 9, 2009

Analysis of:Catering to the Recession Mentality | online.wsj.com

The article is about the struggle of retailers to lure consumers to stop worrying about the economy and start spending again. Their bait is aggressive discounting. The question not only is whether it will work but whether other factors will wipe out the best laid discounts.

Daniel LintzPresident & Chief Executive OfficerSafe Harbour Japan K.K.

JAL Rehabilitation Requires a Political Decision

October 28, 2009

Analysis of:MARKET SCRAMBLE: JAL Shareholders Get No Respect -- Again | www.nni.nikkei.co.jp

Transport Minister Hon. Seiji Maehara wasted no time stepping between troubled carrier Japan Airlines Corporation and its three main creditor megabanks, but the latest rehabilitation plan may require a major overhaul to address three main issues: personnel, pensions and profitability. A political decision must be made regarding which stakeholder group should enjoy the benefits of a massive injection of public funds.

Understanding the New Ostpolitik

October 27, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:The new Ostpolitik | www.ft.com

Germany's Ostpolitik with Russia is rooted in economics as much as in politics. German business sees Russia as a vast field for new exports while it also depends on Russian gas. Politically Germany sees no Russian threat in the East and believes that it promotes Russia's integration into Europe. German leaders believe that Russia depends as much on Germany and Europe as Europe depends on Russia.

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