All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Land Market Trends
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Australian Agriculture Opportunities Awakening.
August 29, 2009
Great Southern receivers sell cattle station | www.investordaily.com.au
1. Australian agriculture has shown to create opportunities for foreign investors to move into a solid and equitable enterprise following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).2. Agricultural and Pastoral land in Australia is relatively cheap by world standards.
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The Timing Could Be Right for Asian Investment in Residential US Land Markets
August 14, 2009
Chinese developers looking for land in Oz and US | www.propertywire.com
The overall residential housing market in the United States has been in severe decline since 2006 and related land prices have taken an even greater hit. This is particularly true for key markets like California, Florida, Las Vegas and Phoenix. So here is the good news. In recent months, many of the factors that drive residential land prices show signs of stabilization and in fact, some in the business are calling this a bottom.
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Submarket Analysis Helps With Great Decisions
August 4, 2009
June home sales are highest in King County since Oct. 2007 | seattletimes.nwsource.com
Today, it’s important to understand housing at a submarket level. There is a shift in the mix of buyers. Investors need to understand the nuances at a more granular level in order to make smart decisions. Fewer distressed and entry-level sales are taking place in Seattle. This same shift is taking place in other markets too.
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Fairness and Equity take precedence over the need for Speed and Action.
December 4, 2008
Landsource Seeks Quick Land Sale Process | www.bigbuilderonline.com
The article points to the need for a more streamlined process, but also the need to retain and reinforce STANDARDS OF CONDUCT and PROCESSES which are transparent, open to all, “rules of the game” are known and enforced, and accountability is present. Otherwise, the pitfalls of the absence of those standards and processes will only exacerbate a very bad situation.
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October 13, 2008
Cheaper Land Sparks Free-For-All in Some Markets | www.builderonline.com
A few years ago was a great time to sell, now is a reasonable time to buy. Prices may go down some more. Nor will they go up again right away. Low land prices will at some point allow somewhat lower cost new homes. When the cheap land is all developed there will be some sort of squeeze.
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September 15, 2008
Yale’s Shiller: U.S. Housing Slump May Exceed Great Depression | blogs.wsj.com
Comments to a recent article I wrote, “Defining Value and the Risk of Delay,” have encouraged me to follow-up with this piece. Alan Greenspan uttered the words “irrational exuberance” in 1996 when referring to the stock market bubble that ultimately didn’t reverse until several years later, but it was one of the most severe in history. Yale’s Robert Shiller also authored the book in 2000 entitled “Irrational Exuberance” and in 2005 paralleled the housing boom to the same fundamental concerns. While we don’t show a running ticker across our TV screen, there is an on going disconnect between land and lot valuations - realized or not. The following attempts to establish the fundamentals for determining lot values in this new world.
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September 15, 2008
Yale’s Shiller: U.S. Housing Slump May Exceed Great Depression | blogs.wsj.com
Comments to a recent article I wrote, “Defining Value and the Risk of Delay,” have encouraged me to follow-up with this piece. Alan Greenspan uttered the words “irrational exuberance” in 1996 when referring to the stock market bubble that ultimately didn’t reverse until several years later, but it was one of the most severe in history. Yale’s Robert Shiller also authored the book in 2000 entitled “Irrational Exuberance” and in 2005 paralleled the housing boom to the same fundamental concerns. While we don’t show a running ticker across our TV screen, there is an on going disconnect between land and lot valuations - realized or not. The following attempts to establish the fundamentals for determining lot values in this new world.
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Defining Value and the Risk of Delay
September 12, 2008
Yale’s Shiller: U.S. Housing Slump May Exceed Great Depression | blogs.wsj.com
Residential real estate lenders, property owners, and potential investors are seeing that current land values have in fact drop to levels that could be 60% below their highs in 2006. Community developments and lot prices have shown the most obvious excesses and value collapses. When you put current economic measurements into perspective, this is consistent with a longer term view of historic property appreciation and further explains the correction that has occurred. There are risks could potentially deepen discounts and delay a recovery to normalized underwriting standards, but as we progress the outlook appears to be on track for a gradual recovery over the next three to five years.
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July 4, 2008
Unfinished subdivisions grinding to a halt | www.azcentral.com
This article is right on the money as the developers who leveraged all their financing on selling the whole community got caught in a down turned market. I don't think communities will become "ghost towns" as this will be an opportunity for large developers to buy at a reduced price.
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Developed Lot/Land Foreclosures Rising Rapidly, Banks Struggle for a Strategy
July 3, 2008
Unfinished subdivisions grinding to a halt | www.azcentral.com
While banks are selling foreclosed homes in the Atlanta market for close to 90% of the loan amount, their vacant lots and land are not selling at all. Builders and developers that have been paying interest for months are running out (or have run out) of cash. Banks are struggling to find a strategy to handle what many of them expect to be an avalanche of foreclosures on vacant developed lots.
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